Gears of War: E-Day Sales Could Be Eaten by Game Pass, Analyst Warns

Analyst Rhys Elliott says most Xbox revenue for Gears of War: E-Day will be cannibalized by Game Pass, despite strong Steam sales. A PS5 port may come later.

Ever wonder if putting a big game on Game Pass actually pays off? For Gears of War: E-Day, one analyst says the answer is a big fat no—at least when it comes to Xbox revenue.

Rhys Elliott of Alinea Analytics dropped a new report today, and his take is blunt: most of the money E-Day makes on Xbox will be "eaten up by Game Pass." That's because the game is launching day one on Microsoft's subscription service. But here's the twist—on Steam, E-Day is already doing pretty well. It's sold over 120,000 copies, pulling in more than $7 million. That's more than double what Halo: Campaign Evolved managed in a similar timeframe. Still, Elliott doesn't see it hitting 1 million copies on Steam—ever.

So when can you play? The game officially launches on October 6, but if you're willing to pay extra, you can jump in starting October 1. Microsoft's big bet on Game Pass cost billions, but new Xbox CEO Asha Sharma has admitted it didn't pan out. "Our core business weakened, and we added more teams, more investment, and more time, hoping for a better outcome," she said. In 2023, Microsoft even admitted Game Pass cannibalizes full-game sales. Now, the company is pulling back—new Call of Duty games won't hit Game Pass at launch anymore, and other titles might get "windowed" too.

What about a PS5 version? Elliott says Microsoft should have brought E-Day to PS5 for "much-needed extra revenue," and he expects a port "at some point." There was evidence of a PS5 edition, and while Microsoft denied canceling it last minute, they didn't deny it existed. Meanwhile, Microsoft's Aaron Greenberg claims E-Day isn't a timed exclusive, but remember when he said the same about Starfield? Yeah, that came to PS5 eventually.

Elliott isn't pulling punches about Xbox's console strategy either. He calls E-Day and Clockwork Revolution "sacrificial lambs for hearts-and-minds, not economics." He told GameSpot, "Console as we know it is over for Xbox—and has been for a while. There's no turning that ship." He adds that a Gears console exclusive won't move enough Series X units to justify the cost, especially since the games are on Steam anyway.

So, what do you think? Is Game Pass killing Xbox game sales, or is it still a win for players? Will you be picking up E-Day on Steam, or just playing it through Game Pass? Let us know in the comments!